| 논문명 | 에너지시스템 분석 모형을 활용한 건물부문 에너지수요 전망 연구/A Forecast of Energy Demand in Building Sector using Energy System Model |
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| 저자명 | 정영선(Jeong, Young-Sun) ; 조철흥(Cho, Cheolhung) |
| 발행사 | 한국건축친환경설비학회 |
| 수록사항 | 한국건축친환경설비학회 논문집 , Vol.10 No.5 |
| 페이지 | 시작페이지(368) 총페이지(7) |
| ISSN | 1976-6483 |
| 주제분류 | 환경및설비 |
| 주제어 | 에너지시스템 분석 모형 ; 에너지수요 전망 ; 건물부문 Energy system model ; Energy demand forecast ; Building sector |
| 요약2 | The demand side management is currently ever more emphasized with a rapid increase of energy consumption and energy-related environmental concerns such as air pollution and climate change. The Republic of Korea, which imports about 97% of its energy resources from overseas, has experienced a growing energy consumption in the past decades mainly coupled with economic growth and its trend seems unlikely to change a lot in a near future. Among other sectors, energy use in building sector increased from 22.0 million TOE in 1990 to 37.9 million TOE in 2012 at the annual rate of 2.5%. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the long-term energy demand for domestic building sector. We broke down the energy consumption by 5(residential) or 6(commercial) specific end-uses and forecast their future demands in the framework of MESSAGE, an energy system model. According to the analysis, The expected energy use for residential sector is 25.4 million TOE and that for commercial sector is 28.3 million TOE in 2035. By 2035, electricity accounts for 57% of total building sector enegy consumption and city gas accounts for 35%. For the specific end-use, space heating and hot water accounts for 40% of building energy use in 2035. |
| 소장처 | 한국건축친환경설비학회 |